More than €860,000 worth of cryptocurrency bets placed on the Dublin Central byelection are now under scrutiny after an investigation uncovered what experts described as highly suspicious trading activity linked to online prediction markets.
The controversy centres around betting on independent candidate Gerry Hutch — widely known as “The Monk” — on the controversial prediction platform Polymarket ahead of Friday’s byelection in Dublin Central.
According to an investigation first reported by The Irish Times, more than 86 per cent of over $1 million (€860,250) wagered on candidates in the contest came from accounts displaying “self-trading” behaviour — a practice where bets are rapidly reversed with little or no financial loss. Experts warned such activity can sometimes indicate attempts at market manipulation, money laundering or artificially inflating trading activity.
Almost half of the suspicious betting activity reportedly involved wagers on Hutch losing the election. However, there is currently no suggestion that Hutch himself or any candidate in the race is connected to the betting patterns uncovered.
Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction platform at the centre of the controversy, has faced regulatory scrutiny internationally due to concerns around transparency and oversight. Unlike traditional bookmakers, users on prediction markets buy and trade shares linked to political outcomes, with prices fluctuating based on betting demand and market sentiment.
The Dublin Central byelection has unexpectedly attracted international attention in recent weeks due largely to Hutch’s candidacy and his controversial public profile. Hutch, who previously failed to win a seat in the 2024 general election, is once again contesting the constituency following the resignation of former Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe from the Dáil.
Recent polling suggests Hutch remains a competitive outsider in the race. An Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll published earlier this week placed him on 14 per cent first-preference support, behind Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan and Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis.
The unusual betting activity has renewed debate around the growing influence of cryptocurrency-based prediction markets on political events. Financial crime specialists say self-trading patterns can sometimes be used to create the appearance of market confidence, generate misleading activity levels or move funds between accounts under the guise of legitimate trading.
Experts quoted in the investigation warned that decentralised betting markets can present unique regulatory challenges because transactions are often carried out using cryptocurrency and across international jurisdictions.
Hutch remains one of the most recognizable and controversial figures involved in Irish public life. The 63-year-old has long been associated with organised crime allegations and the Hutch-Kinahan feud, although he was acquitted in 2023 of the murder of David Byrne at the Regency Hotel shooting.
Despite his notoriety, Hutch has attracted a degree of local support in parts of Dublin Central, campaigning heavily on anti-establishment messaging and presenting himself as an outsider candidate appealing to voters frustrated with mainstream politics.
The byelection itself has become one of the most closely watched political contests in Ireland this year, with multiple candidates viewed as realistic contenders in a constituency regarded as politically unpredictable and socially diverse.
The emergence of suspicious betting activity is now likely to intensify calls for tighter regulation of online prediction markets and cryptocurrency gambling platforms, particularly where political elections are involved.
At present, no criminal investigation relating directly to the betting activity has been publicly announced.